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Komente
| Name: | kellyperrea | | Time: | 12/30/2012 at 2:55am (UTC) | | Message: |
But for now, financial analysts and the markets appear focused squarely on a 2013 environment in which the fiscal cliff is avoided, and the economy stays out of recession.What would that economy look like?It would be one with scaled-back federal largess, but possibly enhanced consumer confidence. A fiscal bargain would put some speed bumps in the nation's path, even though the deal's tax hikes and spending cuts wouldn't be of cliff magnitude. The policy changes might exert a slowing force equal to 1 to 2 percent of economic activity.The good news, though, is that a deal would reduce a substantial amount of uncertainty about fiscal policy, giving businesses and consumers the confidence to offset that fiscal drag with some fresh spending.Economists warn that financial uncertainty won't disappear entirely. It appears likely, for example, that a near-term fiscal deal will merely set the stage for more bargaining next year over reforms to costly entitlement programs, and over further tax reforms.Add this all up, and forecasters see next year as a time of tepid economic growth, with gross domestic product (GDP) expanding by about 2 percent even as taxes rise modestly and doubts about 's long-term fiscal health persist.Even though this wouldn't be a roaring recovery, many market strategists expect stocks to perform better than bonds. Two percent growth would be essentially the same as this year. and (R) of appear to be edging toward a deal this month that would reduce projected federal deficits by about $2.5 trillion over the next decade, while leaving more to negotiate next year. (Federal budget experts have generally been calling for a fiscal reform pac <a href={url}>{keyword}</a> kage that would reduce deficits by $4 trillion over the next 10 years.)A survey released this week found that <a href={url}>{keyword}</a> business economists are expecting GDP growth of 1.8 percent next year, with job growth plodding forward at about 165,000 hires per month. That's an average forecast, with some participants more pessimistic and others envisioning solid improvement, with growth above 3 percent.The consensus in the survey, conducted among members of the , was that consumer spending would continue to rise at a 2 percent pace, despite the hit to incomes that may come from a boost in tax rates on the rich and an expiration of a temporary 2 percent reduction in worker payroll taxes.Whil <a href={url}>{keyword}</a> e unexciting, that would be a far better outcome than a no-deal scenario.Economists at have estimated that if all the now-scheduled tax hikes and spending cuts went into effect, a recession next year would shrink US output by 1 percent compared with 2012, and the unemployment rate would rise above 9.5 percent from its current level of 7.7 percent. The , has outlined a recession of similar magnitude, with unemployment above 9 percent.
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| Name: | lisajoypatterso | | Time: | 12/29/2012 at 4:33pm (UTC) | | Message: |
Obama deal can be reached to avert
* Texas Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst s Senate campaign manager Kenneth “Buddy†Barfield of stealing at least $600,000, and possibly more than a $1 million, from Dewhurst s campaign accounts during the past few years. * Rep.-elect Chris Stewart (R-Utah)  he <a href={url}>{keyword}</a> is open to some gun control measures and opposes putting armed guards in schools. Stewart by and received $1,000 from the National Rifle Association in 2012. The NRA recently argued that placing armed guards in schools could prevent future instances of mass violence like the one in Newtown, Conn. WHAT YOU SHOULDN T MISS:* Obama will make <a href={url}>{keyword}</a> his 11th appearance on NBC s Meet The Press this Sunday, and his second as president. * A spokesman for Sen. Michael Crapo (R-Idaho) Crapo won’t fight drunken driving charges when he appears in court in January. Crapo with driving under the influence on Sunday in Alexandria, Va.* Illinois state Sen. Donne Trotter (D) has told officials that he will end his 2nd District special election bid, . The d <a href={url}>{keyword}</a> ecision comes weeks after a Dec. 5 arrest for trying to board an airplane with an unloaded gun and loaded magazine in his garment bag. Trotter said he forgot about putting the gun in his bag after working a security job the previous night. * Sen.-elect Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) is to retire her campaign debt. Warren had just over $400,000 in outstanding debt in late November, according to her campaign finance report. * An anti-abortion protester  the Senate s proceedings Friday. THE FIX MIX:All you need to know about 2012.With Aaron Blake
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